KSMF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

62%

62%

51%

38%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.5¢Risks 50.50u

WN2NO 49.5¢Risks 49.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.50u · WN2 −49.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	95.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	96.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	96.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	98.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	96.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	95.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	86.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	21.6%	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	1.6%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	2.4%	36.1%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	32.3%	12.2%	0.0%	—	53.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	96.9%	78.0%	37.1%	—	75.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	42.4%	57.6%	7.8%	—	86.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	2.1%	6.2%	15.9%	—	55.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	43.4%	3.9%	14.3%	—	33.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	0.5%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	20.2%	13.1%	33.0%	—	39.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	54.5%	19.0%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	66.1%	20.9%	47.2%	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	8.1%	13.7%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	23.2%	21.0%	25.5%	—	43.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	40.1%	8.4%	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	81.0%	21.9%	46.9%	0.0%	45.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	73.8%	22.8%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	53.3%	51.1%	67.9%	—	34.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	33.6%	61.1%	0.0%	—	41.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	21.5%	64.8%	17.5%	0.0%	19.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	27.3%	42.8%	4.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.7%	36.5%	42.6%	4.6%	10.0%	51.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	25.9%	43.6%	39.8%	—	51.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	35.6%	58.0%	46.0%	13.4%	48.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	5.8%	33.8%	20.1%	—	62.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	12.2%	26.8%	14.6%	75.5%	57.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	48.5%	19.2%	—	61.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	63%	74.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	62%	74.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	74.9°F	8.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	72.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	48%	72.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	71.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗