KSMF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

62%

62%

51%

38%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.5¢Risks 50.50u

WN2NO 49.5¢Risks 49.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.50u · WN2 −49.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:42+00:00	65.6%	61.5%	46.1%	29.0%	10.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	65.6%	61.5%	46.1%	29.0%	10.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	65.6%	61.5%	57.7%	29.0%	10.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	65.6%	61.5%	57.7%	29.0%	10.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	65.6%	61.5%	57.7%	29.0%	10.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	65.6%	61.5%	57.7%	29.0%	10.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:23+00:00	53.2%	61.5%	57.7%	50.7%	62.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	53.2%	61.5%	57.7%	50.7%	62.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	53.2%	61.5%	57.7%	50.7%	62.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	53.2%	61.5%	57.7%	50.7%	62.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	53.2%	61.5%	37.6%	50.7%	62.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	53.2%	61.5%	37.6%	50.7%	62.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	53.2%	61.5%	37.6%	50.7%	62.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:52+00:00	63.4%	61.5%	37.6%	50.7%	62.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	63.4%	61.5%	37.6%	50.7%	62.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	63.4%	61.5%	37.6%	50.7%	62.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	63.4%	61.5%	37.6%	50.7%	62.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	63%	74.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	62%	74.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	74.9°F	8.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	72.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	48%	72.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	71.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗