KSMF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

75%

54%

32%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 63.9¢Risks 63.90u

AIFSNO 36.1¢Risks 36.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +36.10u · AIFS −36.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	96.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	98.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	96.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	38.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	86.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	5.0%	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	11.1%	84.9%	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	80.6%	87.0%	75.4%	6.0%	—	94.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	6.9%	78.0%	43.4%	—	75.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	61.3%	33.7%	94.0%	—	77.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	60.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	99.6%	82.6%	99.5%	—	86.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	98.8%	89.2%	88.0%	—	80.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	1.0%	93.6%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	93.0%	98.3%	57.8%	—	85.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	27.9%	94.3%	—	—	85.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	14.4%	77.0%	12.4%	—	70.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	23.1%	49.0%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	84.7%	89.8%	1.5%	—	58.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	45.0%	54.0%	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	62.2%	95.6%	4.4%	—	55.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	91.2%	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	62.9%	73.6%	41.3%	—	59.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	98.3%	78.6%	0.1%	—	62.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	97.1%	86.0%	1.0%	0.0%	71.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	99.1%	83.3%	0.6%	—	72.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	86.3%	81.8%	4.3%	40.1%	58.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	61.5%	9.8%	—	55.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	76.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	76.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	74.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	70.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	68.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗