KSMF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

75%

54%

32%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 63.9¢Risks 63.90u

AIFSNO 36.1¢Risks 36.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +36.10u · AIFS −36.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:07+00:00	88.6%	60.5%	73.3%	51.2%	76.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	88.6%	60.5%	78.0%	51.2%	76.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	88.6%	60.5%	78.0%	51.2%	76.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	88.6%	60.5%	78.0%	51.2%	76.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	83.3%	60.5%	78.0%	51.2%	99.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	83.3%	60.5%	78.0%	51.2%	99.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	83.3%	60.5%	78.0%	51.2%	99.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	83.3%	60.5%	78.0%	51.2%	99.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	83.3%	60.5%	78.0%	51.2%	99.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	83.3%	72.2%	81.6%	51.2%	99.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	83.3%	72.2%	81.6%	51.2%	99.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	83.3%	72.2%	81.6%	51.2%	99.6%
2026-10-16T13:29:01+00:00	85.3%	72.2%	81.6%	50.0%	99.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	85.3%	72.2%	81.6%	50.0%	99.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:49+00:00	85.3%	75.3%	81.6%	50.0%	99.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	85.3%	75.3%	81.6%	50.0%	99.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	85.3%	75.3%	81.6%	50.0%	99.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	85.3%	75.3%	72.8%	50.0%	99.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	85.3%	75.3%	72.8%	50.0%	99.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	85.3%	75.3%	72.8%	50.0%	99.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	81.2%	75.3%	72.8%	50.0%	98.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	81.2%	75.3%	72.8%	50.0%	98.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	81.2%	75.3%	72.8%	50.0%	98.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	81.2%	75.3%	72.8%	50.0%	98.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	81.2%	75.3%	72.8%	87.7%	98.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	81.2%	75.3%	76.7%	87.7%	98.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	81.2%	75.3%	76.7%	87.7%	98.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	81.2%	75.3%	76.7%	87.7%	98.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	79.0%	75.3%	76.7%	87.7%	98.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	79.0%	75.3%	76.7%	87.7%	98.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	79.0%	75.3%	76.7%	87.7%	98.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	79.0%	75.3%	76.7%	87.7%	98.8%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	38.0%	65.9%	36.1%	87.4%	89.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	38.0%	67.0%	36.1%	87.4%	89.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	38.0%	67.0%	36.1%	87.4%	89.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	38.0%	67.0%	30.7%	87.4%	89.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	38.0%	67.0%	30.7%	87.4%	89.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	38.0%	67.0%	30.7%	87.4%	89.0%
2026-10-18T19:28:01+00:00	47.2%	67.0%	30.7%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	47.2%	67.0%	30.7%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	47.2%	67.0%	30.7%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	47.2%	67.0%	30.7%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	47.2%	67.0%	30.7%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	47.2%	67.0%	46.5%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	47.2%	67.0%	46.5%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	47.2%	67.0%	46.5%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	59.3%	67.0%	46.5%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	59.3%	67.0%	46.5%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	59.3%	67.0%	46.5%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	59.3%	67.0%	46.5%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	59.3%	67.0%	46.5%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	59.3%	67.0%	55.9%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	59.3%	67.0%	55.9%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	59.3%	67.0%	55.9%	58.9%	68.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:51+00:00	22.3%	67.0%	55.9%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	22.3%	67.0%	55.9%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	22.3%	67.0%	55.9%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	22.3%	67.0%	55.9%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	22.3%	67.0%	55.9%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	22.3%	75.7%	20.1%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	22.3%	75.7%	20.1%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	22.3%	75.7%	20.1%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:05+00:00	19.4%	75.7%	20.1%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	19.3%	75.7%	20.1%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	19.3%	75.1%	20.1%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	19.3%	75.1%	20.1%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	19.3%	75.1%	20.1%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	19.3%	75.1%	28.1%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	19.3%	75.1%	28.1%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	19.3%	75.1%	28.1%	85.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	37.4%	75.1%	28.1%	92.1%	95.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	37.4%	75.1%	28.1%	92.1%	95.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	37.4%	75.1%	28.1%	92.1%	95.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	37.4%	75.1%	28.1%	92.1%	95.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	37.4%	75.1%	28.1%	92.1%	95.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	37.4%	75.1%	53.9%	92.1%	95.9%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	37.4%	75.1%	53.9%	92.1%	95.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	37.4%	75.1%	53.9%	92.1%	95.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	31.9%	75.1%	53.9%	92.1%	95.9%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	31.9%	75.1%	53.9%	92.1%	95.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	31.9%	75.1%	53.9%	92.1%	95.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	76.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	76.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	74.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	70.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	68.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗