KSMF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.7¢Risks 15.70u

WN2NO 84.3¢Risks 84.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.30u · WN2 −84.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.0%	4.7%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	4.5%	1.7%	0.0%	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.0%	1.5%	0.1%	—	1.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	6.5%	—	1.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	29.5%	1.2%	26.1%	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	13.8%	1.7%	1.5%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.1%	8.0%	0.1%	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.1%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	31%	81.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	75.9°F	11.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	78.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	76.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	72.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	1%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	74.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗