KSMF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.7¢Risks 15.70u

WN2NO 84.3¢Risks 84.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.30u · WN2 −84.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:51+00:00	20.1%	3.0%	2.9%	5.7%	3.0%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	20.1%	17.4%	0.6%	5.7%	3.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	20.1%	17.4%	0.6%	5.7%	3.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	20.1%	17.4%	0.6%	5.7%	3.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	14.7%	17.4%	0.6%	5.7%	3.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	14.7%	17.4%	0.6%	5.7%	3.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:46+00:00	14.7%	17.2%	0.6%	5.7%	3.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	14.7%	17.2%	0.6%	5.7%	3.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	14.7%	17.2%	0.6%	5.7%	3.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	14.7%	17.2%	1.3%	5.7%	3.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	14.7%	17.2%	1.3%	5.7%	3.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	14.7%	17.2%	1.3%	5.7%	3.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	10.3%	17.2%	1.3%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	10.3%	17.2%	1.3%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	10.3%	17.2%	1.3%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	10.3%	17.2%	1.3%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	10.3%	17.2%	1.3%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	10.3%	17.2%	0.9%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	10.3%	17.2%	0.9%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	10.3%	17.2%	0.9%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	7.0%	17.2%	0.9%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	7.0%	17.2%	0.9%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	7.0%	17.2%	0.9%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	7.0%	17.2%	0.9%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:12+00:00	7.0%	17.2%	0.9%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	7.0%	17.2%	0.7%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	7.0%	17.2%	0.7%	5.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	7.0%	17.2%	0.7%	5.0%	30.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	31%	81.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	75.9°F	11.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	78.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	76.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	72.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	1%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	74.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗