KSMF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

79%

62%

61%

61%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.8¢Risks 73.75u

HRESNO 26.2¢Risks 26.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +26.25u · HRES −26.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	95.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	93.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	95.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	—	72.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	75.6%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	82.8%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	0.8%	65.2%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	73.1%	45.1%	5.2%	—	65.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	34.3%	82.0%	84.4%	—	70.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	44.7%	51.5%	16.9%	—	71.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	4.7%	12.3%	39.7%	—	70.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	46.7%	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	7.7%	14.8%	13.4%	—	72.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	3.0%	31.1%	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	67.0%	24.8%	6.8%	—	57.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	19.6%	6.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	61.8%	12.4%	21.6%	—	39.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	90.8%	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	9.4%	22.5%	15.9%	—	53.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	41.1%	21.1%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	80.3%	10.3%	0.9%	—	62.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	68.4%	2.5%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	9.4%	1.4%	5.9%	2.1%	62.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	9.2%	0.2%	—	63.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	86%	77.8°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	79%	79.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	73.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	74.1°F	9.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	73.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗