KSMF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

79%

62%

61%

61%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.8¢Risks 73.75u

HRESNO 26.2¢Risks 26.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +26.25u · HRES −26.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	94.5%	66.7%	68.4%	48.7%	16.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00	94.5%	66.7%	68.4%	48.7%	16.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	94.5%	60.6%	68.4%	48.7%	16.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:40+00:00	94.5%	60.6%	68.4%	48.7%	16.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	86.9%	60.6%	68.2%	48.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	86.9%	60.6%	68.2%	48.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:44+00:00	86.9%	61.3%	68.2%	48.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	86.9%	61.3%	68.2%	48.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	86.9%	61.3%	71.6%	48.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	86.9%	61.3%	71.6%	48.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	86.9%	61.3%	71.6%	48.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	86.9%	61.3%	71.6%	48.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:23+00:00	63.7%	61.3%	71.6%	61.1%	79.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	63.7%	61.3%	71.6%	61.1%	79.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	63.7%	61.3%	71.6%	61.1%	79.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	63.7%	61.3%	71.6%	61.1%	79.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	63.7%	61.3%	62.4%	61.1%	79.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	63.7%	61.3%	62.4%	61.0%	79.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	63.7%	61.3%	62.4%	61.0%	79.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:52+00:00	86.5%	61.3%	62.4%	61.0%	79.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	86.5%	61.3%	62.4%	61.0%	79.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	86.5%	61.3%	62.4%	61.0%	79.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	86.5%	61.3%	62.4%	61.0%	79.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	86%	77.8°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	79%	79.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	73.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	74.1°F	9.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	73.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗