KSMF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

58%

45%

14%

14%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.4¢Risks 42.40u

ICONNO 57.6¢Risks 57.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.60u · ICON −57.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	93.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	66.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	70.4%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	78.3%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	0.5%	58.7%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	67.0%	38.2%	3.6%	—	59.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	27.9%	76.8%	79.5%	—	64.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	37.2%	43.9%	12.5%	—	64.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	3.0%	8.7%	32.3%	—	63.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	38.7%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	5.1%	10.4%	9.3%	—	64.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.8%	23.9%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	58.7%	18.4%	4.3%	—	49.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	14.0%	3.9%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	52.8%	8.3%	15.4%	—	30.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	86.3%	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	5.9%	15.9%	10.7%	—	44.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	31.7%	14.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	72.4%	6.4%	0.5%	—	52.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	58.4%	1.3%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	5.6%	0.7%	3.3%	1.1%	52.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	5.4%	0.1%	—	52.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	4.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	71%	76.9°F	7.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	73.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	72.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	67.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	14%	65.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗