WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KSMF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
28%
EPS
10%
AIFS
9%
HRES
3%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 14.2¢Risks 14.15u
VS
WN2NO 85.9¢Risks 85.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.85u · WN2 −85.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 42.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-07 12:0010-14 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:001.3%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:009.1%————43.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0021.6%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0071.2%————37.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0015.2%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0039.5%————29.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0018.9%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:003.8%————42.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0038.0%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:001.6%————35.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0045.2%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0041.5%————27.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0035.9%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:003.9%————32.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:008.7%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:004.5%————20.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0016.4%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:003.4%————9.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:003.3%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:005.7%————3.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:005.6%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:005.5%————4.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:003.3%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:006.0%————5.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0017.3%—5.7%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0011.9%—6.5%——3.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:007.9%—2.2%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:004.3%—9.0%——5.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.1%—1.5%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:006.6%0.0%2.4%——2.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:002.2%—2.5%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.2%3.2%0.5%0.0%—2.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:001.7%—0.5%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.1%4.9%5.9%—2.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.4%—0.0%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%0.4%0.0%—1.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.1%—0.1%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%—1.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.2%——1.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%—0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%2.3%0.0%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON28%79.6°F9.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble10%74.1°F9.1°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single9%77.8°F5.7°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
IFS HRES3%73.3°F6.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
National Blend<1%72.0°F5.5°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%73.1°F5.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 16 · 01:22 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗