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KSMF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
28%
EPS
10%
AIFS
9%
HRES
3%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 14.2¢Risks 14.15u
VS
WN2NO 85.9¢Risks 85.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.85u · WN2 −85.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:52+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.4% · 2026-10-16T01:22:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.4% · 2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.4% · 2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.4% · 2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T01:22:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00IFS HRES: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:52+00:00IFS HRES: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00IFS HRES: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00IFS HRES: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00ICON: 27.6% · 2026-10-16T01:22:52+00:00ICON: 27.6% · 2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00ICON: 27.6% · 2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00ICON: 27.6% · 2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:0010-16 01:2210-16 02:5310-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T01:22:52+00:008.9%10.4%0.7%2.9%27.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:008.9%10.4%0.7%2.9%27.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:008.9%10.4%0.7%2.9%27.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:008.9%10.4%0.7%2.9%27.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON28%79.6°F9.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble10%74.1°F9.1°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single9%77.8°F5.7°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
IFS HRES3%73.3°F6.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
National Blend<1%72.0°F5.5°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%73.1°F5.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 16 · 01:22 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗