KSMF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

88%

75%

74%

53%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 73.7¢Risks 73.70u

ICONNO 26.3¢Risks 26.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +26.30u · ICON −26.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	30.9%	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	—	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	1.0%	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	1.6%	17.6%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	24.6%	61.8%	0.6%	—	84.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	45.6%	60.8%	17.0%	—	76.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	43.2%	81.1%	27.0%	—	76.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	79.4%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	89.6%	88.5%	41.3%	—	67.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	81.6%	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	99.4%	83.2%	92.0%	—	61.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	17.3%	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.8%	98.8%	91.3%	75.9%	—	73.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	96.6%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	86.1%	81.6%	70.3%	—	84.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	94.7%	76.2%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	53.9%	79.0%	47.1%	22.5%	88.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	81.0%	—	—	93.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	80.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	77.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	74.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	73.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	53%	71.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗