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KSMF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
95%
AIFS
88%
EPS
75%
WN2
74%
ICON
53%
Consensus
80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 73.7¢Risks 73.70u
VS
ICONNO 26.3¢Risks 26.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +26.30u · ICON −26.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-16T13:29:01+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T15:05:49+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-16T13:29:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-16T15:05:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-16T13:29:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.1% · 2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.1% · 2026-10-16T15:05:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.1% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.1% · 2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.5% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-16T13:29:01+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-16T15:05:49+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-10-16T13:29:01+00:00ICON: 20.8% · 2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00ICON: 20.8% · 2026-10-16T15:05:49+00:00ICON: 20.8% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00ICON: 20.8% · 2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00ICON: 20.8% · 2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00ICON: 20.8% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00ICON: 20.8% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:0010-16 13:2910-16 21:0710-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T13:29:01+00:0087.3%71.8%85.2%97.3%20.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:0087.1%71.8%85.1%97.3%20.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:49+00:0087.1%74.9%85.1%97.3%20.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:0087.1%74.9%85.1%97.3%20.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:0087.1%74.9%85.1%97.3%20.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:0087.1%74.9%76.0%97.3%20.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:0087.1%74.9%76.0%97.3%20.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:0087.1%74.9%76.0%97.3%20.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:0089.2%74.9%76.0%97.3%52.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:0089.2%74.9%76.0%97.3%52.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:0089.2%74.9%76.0%97.3%52.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:0089.2%74.9%76.0%97.3%52.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:0089.2%74.9%76.0%94.7%52.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:0089.2%74.9%73.5%94.6%52.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:0089.2%74.9%73.5%94.6%52.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:0089.2%74.9%73.5%94.6%52.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:0087.8%74.9%73.5%94.6%52.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:0087.8%74.9%73.5%94.6%52.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:0087.8%74.9%73.5%94.6%52.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:0087.8%74.9%73.5%94.6%52.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES95%80.9°F6.5°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single88%77.2°F5.8°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble75%74.8°F6.4°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 274%73.7°F5.1°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
National Blend55%71.0°F4.4°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
ICON53%71.2°F9.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗