KSMF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

93%

87%

86%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 92.0¢Risks 46.02u

WN2NO 8.0¢Risks 3.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +3.98u · WN2 −3.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	96.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	87.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	86.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	15.4%	—	—	79.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	86.7%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	1.5%	98.1%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	64.4%	96.5%	9.9%	—	58.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	89.4%	94.7%	99.6%	83.0%	—	79.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	95.8%	98.7%	76.1%	—	90.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	85.5%	94.3%	85.5%	73.9%	95.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	96.1%	—	—	97.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	79.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	96%	80.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	78.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	74.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	73.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	71.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261025-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗