KSMF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

93%

87%

86%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 92.0¢Risks 46.02u

WN2NO 8.0¢Risks 3.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +3.98u · WN2 −3.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:54+00:00	82.2%	75.8%	55.8%	6.6%	20.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	82.2%	75.8%	55.8%	6.6%	20.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	82.2%	75.8%	55.8%	6.6%	20.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	82.2%	75.8%	55.8%	6.6%	20.8%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	82.2%	74.9%	76.5%	6.6%	20.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	82.2%	74.9%	76.5%	6.6%	20.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	82.2%	74.9%	76.5%	6.6%	20.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	82.2%	74.9%	76.5%	6.6%	20.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	95.4%	74.9%	76.5%	6.6%	20.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	95.4%	74.9%	76.5%	6.6%	20.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	95.4%	75.5%	76.5%	6.6%	20.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	95.4%	75.5%	76.5%	6.6%	20.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	95.4%	75.5%	82.1%	6.6%	20.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	95.4%	75.5%	82.1%	6.6%	20.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	95.4%	75.5%	82.1%	6.6%	20.6%
2026-10-18T19:28:01+00:00	95.9%	75.5%	82.1%	95.7%	74.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	95.9%	75.5%	82.1%	95.7%	74.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	95.9%	75.5%	82.1%	95.7%	74.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	95.9%	75.5%	82.1%	95.7%	74.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	95.9%	75.5%	82.1%	95.7%	74.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	95.9%	75.5%	86.8%	95.7%	74.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	95.9%	75.5%	86.8%	95.7%	74.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	95.9%	75.5%	86.8%	95.7%	74.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	96.6%	75.5%	86.8%	95.7%	74.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	96.6%	75.5%	86.8%	95.7%	74.8%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	96.6%	75.5%	86.8%	95.7%	74.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	96.6%	75.5%	86.8%	95.7%	74.8%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	96.6%	75.5%	86.8%	95.7%	74.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	96.6%	75.5%	88.0%	95.7%	74.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	96.6%	75.5%	88.0%	95.7%	74.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	96.6%	75.5%	88.0%	95.7%	74.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:51+00:00	97.4%	75.5%	88.0%	92.9%	96.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	97.4%	75.5%	88.0%	92.9%	96.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	97.4%	75.5%	88.0%	92.9%	96.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	97.4%	75.5%	88.0%	92.9%	96.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	97.4%	75.5%	88.0%	92.9%	96.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	97.4%	87.1%	86.3%	92.9%	96.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	97.4%	87.1%	86.3%	92.9%	96.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	97.4%	87.1%	86.3%	92.9%	96.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:05+00:00	97.8%	87.1%	86.3%	92.9%	96.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	97.8%	87.0%	86.3%	92.9%	95.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	79.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	96%	80.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	78.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	74.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	73.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	71.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261025-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗