KSMF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

90%

82%

79%

74%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 82.2¢Risks 41.08u

ICONNO 17.8¢Risks 8.92u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +8.92u · ICON −8.92u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	71.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	5.2%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	67.6%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	0.2%	91.8%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	36.9%	86.7%	2.3%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	81.1%	97.3%	58.7%	—	52.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	83.1%	92.7%	47.7%	—	70.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	60.3%	78.2%	60.3%	43.6%	82.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	—	82.7%	—	—	85.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	78.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	90%	79.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	76.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	75.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	76.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗