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KSMF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
90%
HRES
90%
EPS
82%
WN2
79%
ICON
74%
Consensus
80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 82.2¢Risks 41.08u
VS
ICONNO 17.8¢Risks 8.92u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +8.92u · ICON −8.92u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 90.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:44+00:00AIFS Single: 90.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 90.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00AIFS Single: 90.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 90.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:44+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00IFS HRES: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS HRES: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS HRES: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00ICON: 88.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:44+00:00ICON: 88.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 88.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00ICON: 88.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 88.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00ICON: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00ICON: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00ICON: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00ICON: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00ICON: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:44+00:0090.6%61.9%78.6%84.9%88.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0090.6%61.9%78.6%84.9%88.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:0090.6%61.9%79.2%84.9%88.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0090.6%61.9%79.2%84.9%88.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0090.6%61.9%79.2%84.9%88.6%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:0089.9%61.9%79.2%84.9%74.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0089.9%61.9%79.2%84.9%74.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:0089.9%61.9%79.2%84.9%74.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0089.9%61.9%79.2%84.9%74.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:0089.9%81.7%78.9%89.7%74.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:0089.9%81.7%78.9%89.7%74.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0089.9%81.7%78.9%89.7%74.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0089.9%81.7%78.9%89.7%74.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:0089.9%81.7%79.0%89.7%74.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0089.9%81.7%79.0%89.7%74.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single90%78.8°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES90%79.8°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble82%76.3°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 279%75.8°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON74%76.5°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%73.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend54%73.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗