KSMF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

17%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.6¢Risks 14.55u

WN2NO 85.5¢Risks 85.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +85.45u · WN2 −85.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	9.0%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.0%	31.8%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	1.1%	20.4%	0.0%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	12.8%	46.4%	3.6%	—	2.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	12.5%	25.8%	1.5%	—	5.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	2.6%	7.8%	2.6%	0.9%	10.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	9.5%	—	—	11.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	26%	79.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	78.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	76.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	76.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	75.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	73.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261025-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 18 · 19:28 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗