KSMF / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

28%

27%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 23.6¢Risks 23.65u

WN2NO 76.4¢Risks 76.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +76.35u · WN2 −76.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	1.5%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	20.6%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	0.0%	34.8%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	8.5%	13.4%	0.0%	—	3.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	7.1%	17.9%	7.1%	0.2%	9.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	19.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	43%	82.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	80.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	79.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	77.2°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	75.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	72.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261026-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗