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KSMF / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
97%
HRES
95%
WN2
75%
EPS
72%
ICON
18%
Consensus
82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 57.8¢Risks 57.75u
VS
ICONNO 42.2¢Risks 42.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.25u · ICON −42.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 90.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 89.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 83.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 65.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 95.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 75.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 86.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 94.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 85.1% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 64.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 73.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 74.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 65.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 79.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 76.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 60.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 51.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 12:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.1%———7.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0033.5%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0090.7%———64.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0073.9%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0071.2%———73.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0050.5%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0069.4%———74.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0089.2%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0074.3%———65.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0085.4%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0065.0%———79.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0075.6%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:004.9%———76.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0024.4%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:009.1%———60.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0018.6%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0045.7%———51.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0041.9%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0054.4%———44.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0031.2%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0024.3%———35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0024.4%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0029.8%—83.4%—28.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0054.2%—65.1%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0052.4%———31.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0074.7%—10.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0051.3%—95.4%—47.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0082.4%—75.5%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0066.4%—91.7%—59.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0081.5%—86.0%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0054.7%1.1%42.6%16.3%76.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0089.3%—94.0%——
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00——85.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single97%82.4°F5.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES95%82.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%75.0°F5.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble72%75.8°F7.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend54%72.0°F4.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON18%62.5°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261027-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 72°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗