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KSMF / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
97%
HRES
95%
WN2
75%
EPS
72%
ICON
18%
Consensus
82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 57.8¢Risks 57.75u
VS
ICONNO 42.2¢Risks 42.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.25u · ICON −42.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T15:32:47+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00AIFS Single: 97.1% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00AIFS Single: 97.1% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00AIFS Single: 97.1% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-20T15:32:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T15:32:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00IFS HRES: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00IFS HRES: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS HRES: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS HRES: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T15:32:47+00:00IFS HRES: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00IFS HRES: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00IFS HRES: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00ICON: 18.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00ICON: 18.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00ICON: 18.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 18.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T15:32:47+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 14:4610-20 18:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:0078.9%74.7%72.2%95.0%18.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:0078.9%74.7%72.2%95.0%18.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0078.9%74.7%72.2%95.0%18.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0078.9%74.7%72.2%95.0%18.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:0078.9%74.7%72.2%95.0%18.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0078.9%74.7%72.2%95.0%18.4%
2026-10-20T15:32:47+00:0078.9%71.9%72.2%95.0%18.4%
2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:0078.9%71.9%72.2%95.0%18.4%
2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:0097.1%71.9%75.4%95.0%18.4%
2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:0097.1%71.9%75.4%95.0%18.4%
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:0097.1%71.9%75.4%95.0%18.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single97%82.4°F5.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES95%82.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%75.0°F5.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble72%75.8°F7.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend54%72.0°F4.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON18%62.5°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261027-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 72°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗