KSTL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

53%

50%

36%

16%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.8¢Risks 52.80u

ICONNO 47.2¢Risks 47.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.20u · ICON −47.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	69.2%	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	16.4%	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	6.2%	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	14.7%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	22.4%	0.2%	26.9%	—	64.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	0.5%	81.6%	—	52.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	47.7%	16.4%	62.0%	—	52.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	61.0%	49.2%	41.3%	—	57.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	72.1%	65.5%	59.9%	—	52.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	54.3%	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	61.3%	73.1%	33.8%	—	47.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	69.8%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	50.9%	80.4%	23.0%	—	35.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	37.9%	82.3%	—	—	27.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	33.0%	82.9%	26.3%	—	27.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	38.2%	82.3%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	34.0%	78.1%	34.0%	—	25.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	27.1%	73.0%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	33.1%	62.9%	27.3%	0.0%	21.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	30.5%	63.3%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	30.0%	59.2%	13.4%	—	22.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	24.4%	56.0%	10.8%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	24.6%	58.7%	11.2%	11.8%	27.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	20.0%	56.4%	14.3%	—	23.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	23.0%	60.6%	12.7%	10.1%	21.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	22.1%	63.7%	8.6%	—	19.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	17.2%	77.8%	10.8%	17.2%	17.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	15.3%	76.4%	8.6%	—	12.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	13.4%	73.7%	7.7%	18.1%	10.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	16.0%	69.0%	9.9%	—	13.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	63.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.8010
National Blend	59%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3481
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	53%	59.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2809
WeatherNext 2	50%	59.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2500
IFS HRES	36%	58.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1318
ICON	16%	56.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0259

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261017-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗