KSTL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

51%

35%

24%

15%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.2¢Risks 42.20u

WN2NO 57.8¢Risks 57.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.80u · WN2 −57.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	46.5%	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	5.4%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	1.4%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	4.2%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	7.2%	0.0%	9.3%	—	36.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.1%	56.6%	—	24.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	20.5%	4.1%	32.3%	—	23.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	30.1%	20.6%	15.4%	—	26.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	40.1%	33.0%	27.9%	—	21.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	22.6%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	27.7%	39.6%	9.7%	—	17.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	35.1%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	18.4%	47.2%	4.8%	—	9.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	10.4%	49.0%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	7.9%	49.0%	5.4%	—	5.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	9.6%	47.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	7.4%	39.8%	7.4%	—	4.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	4.7%	32.6%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	6.2%	22.1%	4.5%	0.0%	2.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	5.1%	21.4%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	4.5%	17.5%	1.1%	—	2.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	2.9%	14.5%	0.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.6%	15.1%	0.7%	0.7%	3.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.6%	12.8%	0.9%	—	2.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.9%	14.1%	0.6%	0.4%	1.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.5%	14.7%	0.3%	—	1.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.8%	24.5%	0.4%	0.8%	0.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.5%	21.3%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	17.1%	0.1%	0.6%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	12.3%	0.2%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	69%	66.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.4816
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.2852
IFS HRES	51%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2560
ICON	35%	59.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.1225
National Blend	35%	60.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.1204
AIFS Single	24%	59.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0586
WeatherNext 2	15%	58.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0225

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261017-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗