WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KSTL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
69%
HRES
51%
ICON
35%
AIFS
24%
WN2
15%
Consensus
36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 42.2¢Risks 42.20u
VS
WN2NO 57.8¢Risks 57.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.80u · WN2 −57.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-11T03:45:13+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-11T04:30:50+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-11T05:16:05+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:17+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:59+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T11:20:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T12:50:28+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T13:35:51+00:00AIFS Single: 24.2% · 2026-10-11T14:26:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-11T03:45:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-11T04:30:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-11T05:16:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-11T07:32:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-11T10:33:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-11T11:20:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-11T12:50:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-11T13:35:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.4% · 2026-10-11T14:26:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.6% · 2026-10-11T03:45:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.6% · 2026-10-11T04:30:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-11T05:16:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-11T07:32:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-11T10:33:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.0% · 2026-10-11T11:20:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.0% · 2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.0% · 2026-10-11T12:50:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.0% · 2026-10-11T13:35:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.0% · 2026-10-11T14:26:14+00:00IFS HRES: 55.6% · 2026-10-11T03:45:13+00:00IFS HRES: 55.6% · 2026-10-11T04:30:50+00:00IFS HRES: 55.6% · 2026-10-11T05:16:05+00:00IFS HRES: 55.6% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00IFS HRES: 55.6% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:17+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:59+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T11:20:00+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T12:50:28+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T13:35:51+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T14:26:14+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T03:45:13+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T04:30:50+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T05:16:05+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T07:32:17+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T10:33:59+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T11:20:00+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T12:50:28+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T13:35:51+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T14:26:14+00:0010-11 03:4510-11 09:0310-11 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T14:26:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T03:45:13+00:0022.0%77.8%30.6%55.6%35.0%
2026-10-11T04:30:50+00:0022.0%77.8%30.6%55.6%35.0%
2026-10-11T05:16:05+00:0022.0%77.8%46.0%55.6%35.0%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:0022.0%77.8%46.0%55.6%35.0%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:0022.0%77.8%46.0%55.6%35.0%
2026-10-11T07:32:17+00:005.6%77.8%46.0%50.6%35.0%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:005.6%77.8%46.0%50.6%35.0%
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:005.6%77.8%46.0%50.6%35.0%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:005.6%77.8%46.0%50.6%35.0%
2026-10-11T10:33:59+00:005.6%77.8%46.0%50.6%35.0%
2026-10-11T11:20:00+00:005.6%69.7%15.0%50.6%35.0%
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:005.6%69.7%15.0%50.6%35.0%
2026-10-11T12:50:28+00:005.6%69.7%15.0%50.6%35.0%
2026-10-11T13:35:51+00:0024.8%69.7%15.0%50.6%35.0%
2026-10-11T14:26:14+00:0024.2%69.4%15.0%50.6%35.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble69%66.5°F5.9°F2026-10-11 00:000.4816
NWS forecast53%64.0°F5.8°F2026-10-11 02:000.2852
IFS HRES51%63.6°F6.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.2560
ICON35%59.7°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.1225
National Blend35%60.0°F8.9°F2026-10-11 06:000.1204
AIFS Single24%59.8°F5.3°F2026-10-11 06:000.0586
WeatherNext 215%58.8°F4.5°F2026-10-11 00:000.0225

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261017-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗