KSTL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 65°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

49%

31%

24%

17%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.8¢Risks 45.75u

AIFSNO 54.2¢Risks 54.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.25u · AIFS −54.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	40.7%	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	58.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	2.9%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	5.1%	0.0%	6.7%	—	30.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.0%	49.3%	—	19.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	15.5%	2.7%	25.8%	—	18.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	23.6%	15.4%	11.1%	—	20.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	32.2%	25.8%	21.3%	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	16.7%	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	20.8%	31.4%	6.5%	—	12.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	27.1%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	12.9%	38.2%	2.9%	—	6.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	6.7%	39.7%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	4.9%	39.4%	3.2%	—	3.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	6.0%	37.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	4.4%	30.3%	4.4%	—	2.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	2.6%	23.6%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	3.5%	14.9%	2.4%	0.0%	1.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	2.7%	14.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	2.4%	11.0%	0.5%	—	1.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.4%	8.7%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.2%	8.9%	0.3%	0.3%	1.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.7%	7.2%	0.4%	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.8%	7.9%	0.2%	0.1%	0.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.6%	8.1%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	14.6%	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	12.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	8.9%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	5.8%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	74%	70.4°F	9.0°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.5535
National Blend	52%	65.0°F	9.4°F	2026-10-10 06:00	0.2714
IFS HRES	49%	64.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.2440
ICON	31%	59.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0980
WeatherNext 2	24%	61.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0571
AIFS Single	17%	59.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.0292

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261017-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 65°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗