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KSTL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 65°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 02:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
74%
HRES
49%
ICON
31%
WN2
24%
AIFS
17%
Consensus
34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 45.8¢Risks 45.75u
VS
AIFSNO 54.2¢Risks 54.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.25u · AIFS −54.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-10T22:27:39+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-11T01:29:02+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-10T22:27:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-11T01:29:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.9% · 2026-10-10T22:27:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-11T01:29:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-10T22:27:39+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-11T01:29:02+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-10T22:27:39+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-11T01:29:02+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:0010-10 22:2710-11 00:4310-11 02:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:27:39+00:0015.3%74.4%20.9%49.4%31.3%
2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:0015.3%74.4%23.9%49.4%31.3%
2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:0015.3%74.4%23.9%49.4%31.3%
2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:0015.3%74.4%23.9%49.4%31.3%
2026-10-11T01:29:02+00:0017.1%74.4%23.9%49.4%31.3%
2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:0017.1%74.4%23.9%49.4%31.3%
2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:0017.1%74.4%23.9%49.4%31.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble74%70.4°F9.0°F2026-10-10 00:000.5535
National Blend52%65.0°F9.4°F2026-10-10 06:000.2714
IFS HRES49%64.4°F6.3°F2026-10-10 12:000.2440
ICON31%59.7°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.0980
WeatherNext 224%61.0°F4.9°F2026-10-10 12:000.0571
AIFS Single17%59.2°F5.6°F2026-10-10 18:000.0292

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261017-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 65°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗