KSTL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

18%

18%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 18.7¢Risks 18.70u

HRESNO 81.3¢Risks 81.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +81.30u · HRES −81.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	16.8%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	0.1%	57.4%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	48.6%	49.3%	0.3%	—	18.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	34.3%	44.9%	22.1%	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	4.4%	0.8%	15.5%	—	14.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	5.5%	23.0%	2.5%	—	4.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	6.3%	26.5%	1.1%	—	2.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	1.3%	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	2.2%	32.2%	1.3%	—	3.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	7.1%	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	2.6%	24.4%	1.5%	—	3.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	2.4%	23.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	1.9%	17.1%	2.5%	—	2.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	0.6%	11.4%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.7%	15.7%	1.2%	—	2.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	1.8%	17.6%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	0.9%	20.6%	0.7%	0.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.5%	16.1%	0.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.7%	22.4%	0.2%	1.1%	0.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	19.9%	0.3%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	1.7%	20.8%	0.6%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.0%	20.9%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.7%	22.0%	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	1.8%	13.2%	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	4.0%	13.8%	0.3%	2.5%	0.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.7%	11.2%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.0%	15.2%	0.1%	1.8%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.3%	15.0%	0.2%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2894
AIFS Single	32%	72.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0992
National Blend	25%	72.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0605
WeatherNext 2	18%	70.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0339
ICON	18%	69.1°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0331
IFS Ensemble	8%	70.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0064
IFS HRES	6%	65.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0035

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗