KSTL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 6.0¢Risks 2.98u

EPSNO 94.0¢Risks 47.02u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +47.02u · EPS −47.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:34+00:00	16.3%	5.4%	10.0%	7.6%	2.2%
2026-10-12T08:34:29+00:00	16.3%	5.4%	10.0%	7.6%	2.2%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	16.3%	5.4%	10.0%	7.6%	2.2%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	16.3%	5.4%	10.0%	7.6%	2.2%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	16.3%	5.4%	10.0%	7.6%	2.2%
2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00	16.3%	5.4%	8.2%	7.6%	2.2%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	16.3%	4.6%	8.2%	7.6%	2.2%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	16.3%	4.6%	8.2%	7.6%	2.2%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	16.3%	4.6%	8.2%	7.6%	2.2%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	16.4%	4.6%	8.3%	7.6%	2.3%
2026-10-12T15:27:30+00:00	16.4%	4.6%	8.3%	7.6%	2.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	16.4%	5.0%	8.3%	7.6%	2.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	16.4%	5.0%	4.9%	7.6%	2.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	16.4%	5.0%	4.9%	7.6%	2.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	16.4%	5.0%	4.9%	7.6%	2.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	16.4%	5.0%	4.9%	7.6%	2.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	6.3%	5.0%	4.9%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	6.3%	5.0%	4.9%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	6.3%	5.0%	4.9%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	6.3%	5.0%	4.9%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	6.3%	5.0%	2.1%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	6.3%	5.0%	2.1%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	6.3%	5.0%	2.1%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	6.3%	5.0%	2.1%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	9.7%	5.0%	2.1%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	9.7%	5.0%	2.1%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	9.7%	5.0%	2.1%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-13T04:16:08+00:00	9.7%	5.0%	2.1%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	9.7%	5.0%	7.7%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	9.7%	5.0%	7.7%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	9.7%	5.0%	7.7%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	9.7%	5.0%	7.7%	7.6%	43.2%
2026-10-13T08:03:43+00:00	12.9%	5.0%	7.7%	16.1%	25.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	12.9%	5.0%	7.7%	16.1%	25.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	12.9%	5.0%	7.7%	16.1%	25.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	12.9%	5.0%	7.7%	16.1%	25.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:21+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	3.5%	16.1%	25.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	3.5%	16.1%	25.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	3.5%	16.1%	25.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	3.5%	16.1%	25.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	10.3%	0.5%	3.5%	16.1%	25.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	10.3%	0.5%	3.5%	16.1%	25.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:39+00:00	10.3%	0.5%	3.5%	16.1%	25.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	10.3%	0.5%	3.5%	16.1%	25.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	10.3%	0.5%	2.3%	16.1%	25.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	10.3%	0.5%	2.3%	16.1%	25.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	10.3%	0.5%	2.3%	16.1%	25.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	13.7%	0.5%	2.3%	16.1%	5.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	13.7%	0.5%	2.3%	16.1%	5.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	13.7%	0.5%	2.3%	16.1%	5.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	13.7%	0.5%	2.3%	16.1%	5.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	13.7%	0.5%	2.3%	11.4%	5.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	13.7%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	5.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	13.7%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	5.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	13.7%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	5.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	5.9%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	5.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	5.9%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	5.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:54+00:00	5.9%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	5.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00	5.9%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	5.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	5.9%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	5.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	5.9%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	5.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	5.9%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	5.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	5.9%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	5.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	5.5%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	2.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:38+00:00	5.5%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	2.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	5.5%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	2.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	5.5%	0.5%	6.1%	11.4%	2.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	14%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0204
IFS HRES	11%	72.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0130
WeatherNext 2	6%	73.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0037
AIFS Single	6%	72.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0030
ICON	3%	69.1°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0007
National Blend	1%	72.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	<1%	70.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261019-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗