KSTL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

74%

40%

28%

21%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.1¢Risks 48.15u

HRESNO 51.8¢Risks 51.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.85u · HRES −51.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:19+00:00	79.5%	43.4%	58.7%	32.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	79.5%	43.4%	58.7%	32.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	79.5%	43.4%	65.1%	32.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	79.5%	43.4%	65.1%	32.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	79.5%	43.4%	65.1%	32.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	79.5%	43.4%	65.1%	32.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	67.8%	43.4%	65.1%	36.5%	50.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	67.8%	43.4%	65.1%	36.5%	50.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	67.8%	43.4%	65.1%	36.5%	50.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	67.8%	43.4%	65.1%	36.5%	50.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	67.8%	43.4%	57.7%	36.5%	50.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	67.9%	43.4%	57.7%	36.5%	50.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	67.9%	43.4%	57.7%	36.5%	50.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	64.2%	43.4%	57.7%	36.5%	50.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	64.2%	43.4%	57.7%	36.5%	50.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	64.2%	43.4%	57.7%	36.5%	50.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	64.2%	43.4%	57.7%	36.5%	50.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:58+00:00	68.0%	34.6%	50.0%	21.0%	11.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	68.0%	34.6%	50.0%	21.0%	11.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	68.0%	34.6%	47.6%	21.0%	11.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	68.0%	34.6%	47.6%	21.0%	11.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	68.0%	34.6%	47.6%	21.0%	11.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	68.0%	34.6%	47.6%	21.0%	11.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	61.0%	34.6%	47.6%	21.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	61.0%	34.6%	47.6%	21.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	61.0%	34.6%	47.6%	21.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	61.0%	34.6%	47.6%	21.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	61.0%	34.6%	38.3%	21.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	61.0%	34.6%	38.3%	21.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	61.0%	34.6%	38.3%	21.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	61.0%	34.6%	38.3%	21.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	64.6%	34.6%	38.3%	21.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	64.6%	34.6%	38.3%	21.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	64.6%	34.6%	38.3%	21.7%	11.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00	65.3%	27.7%	43.6%	19.0%	10.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	65.3%	27.7%	63.9%	19.0%	10.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	65.3%	27.7%	63.9%	19.0%	10.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	65.3%	27.7%	63.9%	19.0%	10.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00	68.5%	27.7%	63.9%	31.4%	26.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	68.5%	27.7%	63.9%	31.4%	26.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	68.5%	27.7%	63.9%	31.4%	26.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	68.5%	27.7%	63.9%	31.4%	26.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:18+00:00	68.5%	27.7%	63.9%	31.4%	26.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00	68.5%	38.4%	62.1%	31.4%	26.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	68.5%	38.4%	62.1%	31.4%	26.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	68.5%	38.4%	62.1%	31.4%	26.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	54.0%	38.4%	62.1%	31.4%	26.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	54.1%	38.4%	62.1%	31.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00	54.1%	39.5%	62.1%	31.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	54.1%	39.5%	62.1%	31.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	54.1%	39.5%	62.1%	31.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	54.1%	39.5%	47.3%	31.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	54.1%	39.5%	47.3%	31.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	54.1%	39.5%	47.3%	31.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	58.1%	39.5%	47.3%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	58.1%	39.5%	47.3%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	58.1%	39.5%	47.3%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	58.1%	39.5%	47.3%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	58.1%	39.5%	47.3%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	58.1%	39.5%	55.5%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	58.1%	39.5%	55.5%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	58.1%	39.5%	55.5%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	69.5%	39.5%	55.5%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	69.5%	39.5%	55.5%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	69.5%	39.5%	55.5%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:49+00:00	69.5%	39.5%	55.5%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	69.5%	39.5%	55.5%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	69.5%	39.5%	75.4%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	69.5%	39.5%	75.4%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	69.5%	39.5%	75.4%	20.9%	19.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	74.3%	39.5%	75.4%	20.9%	27.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	74.3%	39.5%	75.4%	20.9%	27.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	74.3%	39.5%	75.4%	20.9%	27.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	74.3%	39.5%	75.4%	20.9%	27.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	75%	74.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	74.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	71.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	70.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	69.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗