KSTL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

74%

40%

28%

21%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.1¢Risks 48.15u

HRESNO 51.8¢Risks 51.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.85u · HRES −51.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	57.5%	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	62.2%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	0.6%	70.0%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	46.5%	43.0%	1.8%	—	52.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	56.6%	4.4%	28.5%	—	28.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	28.3%	75.5%	14.2%	—	16.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	23.0%	72.6%	12.3%	—	21.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	29.3%	52.5%	12.0%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	13.7%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	28.4%	49.1%	13.1%	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	16.6%	33.4%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	14.9%	49.1%	16.0%	—	21.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	13.7%	57.5%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	9.0%	57.7%	14.7%	—	17.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	7.0%	61.8%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	7.8%	62.2%	6.1%	0.0%	9.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	1.3%	60.5%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	11.9%	63.9%	6.6%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	10.2%	63.3%	0.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	11.6%	73.0%	4.5%	0.0%	8.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	21.6%	67.5%	4.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	38.9%	70.2%	6.7%	37.7%	17.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	32.5%	73.1%	3.2%	—	7.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	27.3%	73.9%	3.5%	34.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	43.1%	72.4%	6.7%	—	13.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	51.4%	73.2%	13.8%	51.4%	20.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	68.9%	13.6%	—	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	75%	74.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	74.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	71.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	70.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	69.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗