KSTL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

21%

12%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.9¢Risks 24.85u

ICONNO 75.2¢Risks 75.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.15u · ICON −75.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:25+00:00	48.4%	20.2%	38.5%	24.4%	37.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	48.4%	20.2%	35.8%	24.4%	37.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	48.4%	20.2%	35.8%	24.4%	37.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	48.4%	20.2%	35.8%	24.4%	37.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	50.9%	20.2%	35.8%	24.4%	27.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	50.9%	20.2%	35.8%	24.4%	27.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	50.9%	20.2%	35.8%	24.4%	27.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	50.9%	20.2%	35.8%	24.4%	27.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	50.9%	20.2%	35.8%	24.4%	27.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:21+00:00	50.9%	21.0%	29.5%	24.4%	27.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	50.9%	21.0%	29.5%	24.4%	27.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	50.9%	21.0%	29.5%	24.4%	27.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:42+00:00	52.6%	21.0%	29.5%	10.7%	27.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	52.6%	21.0%	29.5%	10.7%	27.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	52.6%	21.9%	29.5%	10.7%	27.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	52.6%	21.9%	29.5%	10.7%	27.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	52.6%	21.9%	29.5%	10.7%	27.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	52.6%	21.9%	32.4%	10.7%	27.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	52.6%	21.9%	32.4%	10.7%	27.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	52.6%	21.9%	32.4%	10.7%	27.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	55.2%	21.9%	32.4%	10.7%	16.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	55.2%	21.9%	32.4%	10.7%	16.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	55.2%	21.9%	32.4%	10.7%	16.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	55.2%	21.9%	32.4%	10.7%	16.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	55.2%	21.9%	32.4%	18.9%	16.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	55.2%	21.9%	33.4%	18.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	55.2%	21.9%	33.4%	18.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	55.2%	21.9%	33.4%	18.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	54.3%	21.9%	33.4%	18.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:22+00:00	54.3%	21.9%	33.4%	18.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	54.3%	21.9%	33.4%	18.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:40+00:00	54.3%	21.9%	33.4%	18.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:57+00:00	54.3%	21.9%	33.4%	18.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	54.3%	21.9%	31.4%	18.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:37+00:00	54.3%	21.9%	31.4%	18.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	54.3%	21.9%	31.4%	18.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:38+00:00	53.7%	21.9%	31.4%	10.5%	4.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	53.7%	21.9%	31.4%	10.5%	4.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	53.7%	21.9%	31.4%	10.5%	4.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	53.7%	21.9%	31.4%	10.5%	4.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	53.7%	21.9%	31.4%	10.5%	4.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	53.7%	24.5%	27.6%	10.5%	4.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	53.7%	24.5%	27.6%	10.5%	4.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	53.7%	24.5%	27.6%	10.5%	4.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	50.0%	24.5%	27.6%	10.5%	4.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	50.0%	24.9%	27.6%	10.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:15+00:00	46.3%	15.8%	18.7%	10.9%	4.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	46.3%	15.8%	29.7%	10.9%	4.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	46.3%	15.8%	29.7%	10.9%	4.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	46.3%	15.8%	29.7%	10.9%	4.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	46.3%	15.8%	29.7%	10.9%	4.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00	43.2%	15.8%	29.7%	9.4%	3.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	43.2%	15.8%	29.7%	9.4%	3.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	43.2%	15.8%	29.7%	9.4%	3.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	43.2%	15.8%	29.7%	9.4%	3.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:51+00:00	43.2%	14.0%	21.9%	9.4%	3.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	43.2%	14.0%	21.9%	9.4%	3.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	43.2%	14.0%	21.9%	9.4%	3.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	43.2%	14.0%	21.9%	9.4%	3.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	36.5%	14.5%	21.9%	9.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	36.5%	14.5%	21.9%	9.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	36.5%	12.3%	21.9%	9.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	36.5%	12.3%	21.9%	9.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	36.5%	12.3%	17.5%	9.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	36.5%	12.3%	17.5%	9.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	36.5%	12.3%	17.5%	9.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	41.2%	12.3%	17.5%	8.6%	3.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	41.2%	12.3%	17.5%	8.6%	3.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	41.2%	12.3%	17.5%	8.6%	3.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	41.2%	12.3%	17.5%	8.6%	3.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	41.2%	12.3%	17.5%	8.6%	3.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	41.2%	12.3%	21.0%	8.6%	3.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	41.2%	12.3%	21.0%	8.6%	3.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	41.2%	12.3%	21.0%	8.6%	3.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	46.1%	12.3%	21.0%	8.6%	3.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	46.1%	12.3%	21.0%	8.6%	3.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	46.1%	12.3%	21.0%	8.6%	3.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	46.1%	12.3%	21.0%	8.6%	3.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	74.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	72.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	70.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	68.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	4%	68.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗