KSTL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

21%

12%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.9¢Risks 24.85u

ICONNO 75.2¢Risks 75.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.15u · ICON −75.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	45.0%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	49.4%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	0.2%	57.4%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	33.0%	29.8%	0.7%	—	38.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	42.0%	1.9%	17.5%	—	17.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	16.9%	62.0%	7.3%	—	8.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	12.7%	57.9%	5.9%	—	11.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	16.8%	36.1%	5.6%	—	13.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	6.4%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	15.6%	32.2%	5.9%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	7.8%	19.0%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	6.6%	31.4%	7.3%	—	10.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	5.9%	38.8%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	3.4%	38.5%	6.2%	—	7.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	2.4%	42.0%	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	2.6%	41.8%	1.9%	0.0%	3.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	0.3%	39.5%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	4.2%	42.4%	2.0%	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	3.3%	41.0%	0.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	3.8%	51.2%	1.1%	0.0%	2.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	8.2%	44.0%	1.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	18.2%	46.3%	1.7%	17.4%	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	13.5%	48.7%	0.6%	—	1.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	10.1%	48.7%	0.6%	14.1%	2.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	19.1%	45.8%	1.4%	—	3.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	24.5%	45.7%	3.5%	24.5%	5.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	39.5%	3.2%	—	1.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	74.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	72.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	70.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	68.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	4%	68.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗