KSTL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

46%

43%

38%

21%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.4¢Risks 35.35u

EPSNO 64.7¢Risks 64.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.65u · EPS −64.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:43+00:00	63.2%	30.9%	35.4%	53.8%	6.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	63.2%	30.9%	35.4%	53.8%	6.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	63.2%	30.9%	35.4%	53.8%	6.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	63.2%	30.9%	35.4%	53.8%	6.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:21+00:00	63.2%	20.0%	32.9%	53.8%	6.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	63.2%	20.0%	32.9%	53.8%	6.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	63.2%	20.0%	32.9%	53.8%	6.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	63.2%	20.0%	32.9%	53.8%	6.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	59.8%	20.0%	32.9%	53.8%	6.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	59.8%	20.7%	32.9%	53.8%	6.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:39+00:00	59.8%	20.7%	32.9%	53.8%	6.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	59.8%	20.7%	32.9%	53.8%	6.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	59.8%	20.7%	32.2%	53.8%	6.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	59.8%	20.7%	32.2%	53.8%	6.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	59.8%	20.7%	32.2%	53.8%	6.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	61.2%	20.7%	32.2%	53.8%	46.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	61.2%	20.7%	32.2%	53.8%	46.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	61.2%	20.7%	32.2%	53.8%	46.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	61.2%	20.7%	32.2%	53.8%	46.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	61.2%	20.7%	32.2%	43.1%	46.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	61.2%	20.7%	38.2%	43.1%	46.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	61.2%	20.7%	38.2%	43.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	61.2%	20.7%	38.2%	43.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	50.0%	20.7%	38.2%	43.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	50.0%	20.7%	38.2%	43.1%	46.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2981
AIFS Single	50%	77.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.2500
ICON	46%	76.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.2116
IFS HRES	43%	76.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1858
WeatherNext 2	38%	76.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1459
IFS Ensemble	21%	73.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0428

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗