KSTL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

46%

43%

38%

21%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.4¢Risks 35.35u

EPSNO 64.7¢Risks 64.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.65u · EPS −64.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	27.5%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	30.6%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	0.0%	37.4%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	16.6%	14.5%	0.1%	—	20.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	22.6%	0.4%	6.9%	—	6.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	6.3%	39.4%	2.1%	—	2.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	4.1%	34.5%	1.5%	—	3.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	5.6%	16.2%	1.3%	—	4.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	1.5%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	4.7%	13.1%	1.3%	—	2.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	1.8%	6.0%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	1.4%	11.9%	1.6%	—	2.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	1.1%	15.9%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	0.5%	15.3%	1.2%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	0.3%	17.0%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.3%	16.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.0%	14.4%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	15.5%	0.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.4%	14.1%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.4%	19.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.1%	14.5%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	3.3%	15.1%	0.1%	3.0%	0.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.9%	15.8%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.1%	14.9%	0.0%	1.9%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.7%	12.4%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	11.5%	0.2%	3.7%	0.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	8.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.4%	9.6%	0.1%	2.6%	0.1%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.4%	8.6%	0.2%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2981
AIFS Single	50%	77.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.2500
ICON	46%	76.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.2116
IFS HRES	43%	76.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1858
WeatherNext 2	38%	76.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1459
IFS Ensemble	21%	73.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0428

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗