KSTL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

33%

16%

12%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.7¢Risks 18.70u

EPSNO 81.3¢Risks 81.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.30u · EPS −81.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:54+00:00	36.1%	10.2%	24.1%	31.2%	38.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00	36.1%	10.2%	24.1%	31.2%	38.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	36.1%	10.2%	24.1%	31.2%	38.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	36.1%	10.2%	24.1%	31.2%	38.1%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	36.1%	10.2%	24.1%	31.2%	38.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	36.1%	10.2%	24.1%	31.2%	38.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	34.6%	10.2%	24.1%	31.2%	36.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:38+00:00	34.6%	10.2%	24.1%	31.2%	36.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	34.6%	10.2%	24.1%	31.2%	36.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	34.6%	10.2%	24.1%	31.2%	36.1%
2026-10-14T10:33:39+00:00	34.6%	10.2%	24.1%	12.3%	36.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	34.6%	1.1%	15.3%	12.3%	36.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	34.6%	1.1%	15.3%	12.3%	36.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	34.6%	1.1%	15.3%	12.3%	36.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	31.9%	1.1%	15.3%	12.3%	36.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	32.8%	1.2%	15.7%	12.4%	36.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
ICON	36%	77.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	77.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
National Blend	20%	76.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	74.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	71.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	71.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗