KSTL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

33%

16%

12%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.7¢Risks 18.70u

EPSNO 81.3¢Risks 81.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.30u · EPS −81.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	18.1%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	20.2%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	0.0%	25.4%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	9.3%	7.9%	0.0%	—	12.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	13.2%	0.1%	3.2%	—	3.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	2.8%	25.8%	0.8%	—	1.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	1.6%	21.2%	0.5%	—	1.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.2%	8.0%	0.4%	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.5%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	1.7%	5.9%	0.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.5%	2.2%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.4%	5.0%	0.4%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.3%	7.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.1%	6.5%	0.3%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.1%	7.3%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.1%	6.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.0%	5.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	5.9%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	5.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	7.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.2%	4.8%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.7%	4.9%	0.0%	0.6%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	4.9%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	4.3%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	3.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	2.7%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
ICON	36%	77.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	77.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
National Blend	20%	76.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	74.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	71.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	71.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗