KSTL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

25%

16%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.1¢Risks 17.10u

EPSNO 82.9¢Risks 82.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.90u · EPS −82.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	0.6%	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	3.9%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	0.7%	5.9%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	9.3%	33.6%	0.1%	—	4.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	9.3%	24.9%	0.9%	—	6.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	12.9%	20.0%	3.0%	—	6.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	8.7%	14.5%	4.5%	—	2.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	5.1%	15.7%	3.4%	—	4.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	0.5%	14.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	0.5%	15.6%	2.1%	—	2.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	1.4%	19.0%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	0.6%	14.9%	0.7%	—	1.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	0.2%	12.7%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	1.0%	14.7%	0.4%	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.7%	17.7%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.5%	15.1%	0.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	0.5%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.0%	18.3%	0.2%	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.8%	19.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.7%	14.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	2.2%	17.5%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.9%	17.4%	0.1%	2.3%	0.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	14.3%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	77.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	25%	75.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	70.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	73.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗