KSTL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

25%

16%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.1¢Risks 17.10u

EPSNO 82.9¢Risks 82.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.90u · EPS −82.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:18+00:00	38.1%	10.3%	22.4%	6.5%	38.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	38.1%	10.3%	22.4%	6.5%	38.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	38.1%	10.3%	27.5%	6.5%	38.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	38.1%	10.3%	27.5%	6.5%	38.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	38.1%	10.3%	27.5%	6.5%	38.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:56+00:00	39.8%	10.3%	27.5%	10.9%	30.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	39.8%	10.3%	27.5%	10.9%	30.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	39.8%	10.3%	27.5%	10.9%	30.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	39.8%	10.3%	27.5%	10.9%	30.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:28+00:00	39.8%	10.3%	27.5%	10.9%	30.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	39.8%	10.3%	27.4%	10.9%	30.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	39.8%	2.7%	27.4%	10.9%	30.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:27+00:00	39.8%	2.7%	27.4%	10.9%	30.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	51.5%	2.7%	27.4%	11.0%	30.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	51.5%	2.7%	27.4%	11.0%	30.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:27+00:00	34.2%	2.8%	24.7%	13.8%	37.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	34.2%	2.8%	21.4%	13.8%	37.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	34.2%	2.8%	21.4%	13.8%	37.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	34.2%	2.8%	21.4%	13.8%	37.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	35.8%	2.8%	21.4%	13.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	35.8%	2.8%	21.4%	13.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	35.8%	2.8%	21.4%	13.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	35.8%	2.8%	21.4%	13.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	35.8%	2.8%	21.4%	13.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:21+00:00	35.8%	1.3%	16.5%	13.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	35.8%	1.3%	16.5%	13.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	35.8%	1.3%	16.5%	13.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:42+00:00	32.9%	1.3%	16.5%	6.4%	24.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	32.9%	1.3%	16.5%	6.4%	24.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	77.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	25%	75.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	70.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	73.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗