KSTL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

17%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 12.0¢Risks 6.02u

EPSNO 87.9¢Risks 43.97u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.97u · EPS −43.97u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	13.2%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	23.6%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	0.0%	26.5%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	26.9%	34.9%	0.1%	—	14.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	14.8%	39.2%	3.6%	—	8.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	15.1%	37.2%	11.4%	—	13.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.5%	4.5%	38.2%	4.1%	—	6.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	29.7%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	1.1%	26.5%	2.6%	—	4.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	0.7%	32.6%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	1.5%	31.4%	1.9%	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	1.4%	39.3%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	1.5%	30.6%	0.5%	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	4.2%	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	6.8%	33.9%	1.2%	—	3.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	4.4%	35.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	2.8%	31.2%	0.6%	—	2.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	8.0%	34.5%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	8.1%	36.1%	0.5%	13.7%	3.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	29.6%	0.0%	—	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	75.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	72.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	71.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	73.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗