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KSTL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
32%
WN2
16%
HRES
7%
EPS
4%
ICON
4%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 17.8¢Risks 17.85u
VS
ICONNO 82.2¢Risks 82.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.15u · ICON −82.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 8.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-07 12:0010-14 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.7%————2.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:008.5%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0012.6%————6.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:001.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:006.8%————5.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:007.7%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0010.8%————6.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:008.5%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:003.9%————5.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0024.0%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0040.5%————9.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0011.5%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:007.5%————7.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0028.3%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0021.1%————10.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0015.4%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0025.0%————19.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0016.3%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0019.7%————17.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0021.7%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0011.1%————18.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0018.5%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0015.0%————15.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0018.5%—1.3%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0045.0%—10.1%——10.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0039.9%—21.6%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0029.5%—18.9%——3.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0037.0%—52.6%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0027.7%0.0%21.3%——8.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0031.4%—20.8%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0030.5%21.4%28.6%0.1%—10.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0023.6%—33.3%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0024.3%10.9%32.3%2.4%—5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0023.8%—33.3%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0021.6%11.0%30.3%8.1%—10.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0022.9%—29.9%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0014.5%2.9%30.9%2.6%—4.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0011.4%—23.1%——4.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:007.1%0.6%20.1%1.6%—2.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:007.8%0.4%25.3%——2.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:005.7%0.8%24.1%1.1%—2.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:003.4%0.8%31.0%——1.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:003.2%0.8%23.0%0.2%—1.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:003.2%2.4%21.0%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:005.9%4.2%25.5%0.6%—2.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:003.4%2.5%26.5%——0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:004.0%1.5%22.7%0.3%—1.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:006.5%4.7%25.3%——1.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:007.7%4.7%26.4%0.2%8.5%1.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:004.0%—20.6%0.0%—0.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single32%78.6°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 216%77.4°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES7%74.4°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast5%75.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 14:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%74.3°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON4%74.2°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%75.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗