KSTL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 6.3¢Risks 3.17u

EPSNO 93.7¢Risks 46.83u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.83u · EPS −46.83u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	7.6%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	14.8%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	0.0%	16.7%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	16.6%	23.0%	0.0%	—	7.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	7.9%	26.0%	1.5%	—	4.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	7.8%	23.9%	5.6%	—	7.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	1.8%	24.2%	1.6%	—	3.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	17.3%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.4%	14.8%	0.9%	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.2%	19.0%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.4%	17.8%	0.6%	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.4%	23.5%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.4%	16.6%	0.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.4%	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	2.4%	18.3%	0.3%	—	1.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.4%	19.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.8%	15.7%	0.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	2.6%	17.6%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.6%	18.3%	0.1%	5.0%	0.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	13.5%	0.0%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	76.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	75.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	2%	71.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	71.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	73.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗