KSTL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 6.3¢Risks 3.17u

EPSNO 93.7¢Risks 46.83u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.83u · EPS −46.83u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	40.5%	1.1%	29.6%	9.4%	28.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	40.5%	1.1%	29.6%	9.4%	28.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	40.5%	1.1%	29.6%	9.4%	28.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	40.5%	1.1%	42.4%	9.4%	28.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	40.5%	1.1%	42.4%	9.4%	28.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	40.5%	1.1%	42.4%	9.4%	28.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	37.7%	1.1%	42.4%	9.4%	30.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	37.7%	1.1%	42.4%	9.4%	30.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	37.7%	1.1%	42.4%	9.4%	30.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	37.7%	1.1%	42.4%	9.4%	30.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	37.7%	1.1%	42.4%	14.8%	30.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	37.7%	1.1%	35.0%	14.8%	30.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	37.7%	1.1%	35.0%	14.8%	30.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	37.7%	1.1%	35.0%	14.8%	30.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	39.8%	1.1%	35.0%	14.8%	30.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:22+00:00	39.8%	1.1%	35.0%	14.8%	30.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	39.8%	1.1%	35.0%	14.8%	30.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:40+00:00	39.8%	1.1%	35.0%	14.8%	30.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:58+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	19.1%	8.4%	10.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	19.1%	8.4%	10.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	17.1%	8.4%	10.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	17.1%	8.4%	10.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	17.1%	8.4%	10.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	17.1%	8.4%	10.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	17.6%	2.0%	17.1%	6.0%	4.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	17.6%	2.0%	17.1%	6.0%	4.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	17.6%	2.0%	17.1%	6.0%	4.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	17.6%	2.0%	17.1%	6.0%	4.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	17.6%	2.0%	9.0%	6.0%	4.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	17.6%	2.0%	9.0%	6.0%	4.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	17.6%	2.0%	9.0%	6.0%	4.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	17.6%	2.0%	9.0%	6.0%	4.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	9.0%	6.0%	4.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	9.0%	6.0%	4.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	9.0%	6.0%	4.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	10.3%	0.8%	7.0%	3.3%	1.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	10.3%	0.7%	7.0%	3.3%	1.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	10.3%	0.7%	7.0%	3.3%	1.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	10.3%	0.7%	5.7%	3.3%	1.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	10.3%	0.7%	5.7%	3.3%	1.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	10.3%	0.7%	5.7%	3.3%	1.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	11.1%	0.7%	5.7%	1.9%	2.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	11.1%	0.7%	5.7%	1.9%	2.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	11.1%	0.7%	5.7%	1.9%	2.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	11.1%	0.7%	5.7%	1.9%	2.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	11.1%	0.7%	5.7%	1.9%	2.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	11.1%	0.7%	4.8%	1.9%	2.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	11.1%	0.7%	4.8%	1.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	11.1%	0.7%	4.8%	1.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	12.0%	0.7%	4.8%	1.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	12.0%	0.7%	4.8%	1.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	12.0%	0.7%	4.8%	1.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	12.0%	0.7%	4.8%	1.9%	2.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	76.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	75.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	2%	71.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	71.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	73.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗