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KSTL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
49%
WN2
45%
ICON
20%
EPS
19%
HRES
10%
Consensus
36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 29.5¢Risks 29.55u
VS
HRESNO 70.5¢Risks 70.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +70.45u · HRES −70.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 36.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:40+00:00AIFS Single: 36.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00AIFS Single: 36.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00AIFS Single: 36.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00AIFS Single: 36.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 36.3% · 2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.7% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:40+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:40+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:0010-19 15:1310-19 21:1510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T15:13:40+00:0036.3%19.0%54.3%20.6%25.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:0036.3%19.0%54.3%20.6%25.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:0036.3%19.0%54.3%20.6%25.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:0036.3%19.0%41.5%20.6%25.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:0036.3%19.0%41.5%20.6%25.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:0036.3%19.0%41.5%20.6%25.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:0041.4%19.0%41.5%10.0%20.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:0041.4%19.0%41.5%10.0%20.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:0041.4%19.0%41.5%10.0%20.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:0041.4%19.0%41.5%10.0%20.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:0041.4%19.0%41.5%10.0%20.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:0041.4%19.0%44.7%10.0%20.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:0041.4%19.0%44.7%10.0%20.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:0041.4%19.0%44.7%10.0%20.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:0049.1%19.0%44.7%10.0%20.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:0049.1%19.0%44.7%10.0%20.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:0049.1%19.0%44.7%10.0%20.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend59%77.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%77.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
AIFS Single49%76.4°F4.6°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 245%76.0°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
ICON20%72.4°F4.9°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble19%73.6°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES10%70.1°F5.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗