KSTL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

60%

43%

29%

19%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.0¢Risks 40.00u

EPSNO 60.0¢Risks 60.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.00u · EPS −60.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	68.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	3.5%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	0.1%	50.0%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	13.4%	51.4%	0.5%	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	5.9%	52.9%	10.6%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	0.6%	41.7%	0.8%	—	5.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	47.7%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	2.6%	46.0%	3.6%	—	6.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	53.3%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	2.6%	47.5%	1.3%	—	3.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	1.2%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	6.5%	45.6%	0.7%	—	4.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	5.2%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	3.6%	45.4%	0.9%	—	2.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	7.7%	50.0%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	5.1%	50.0%	1.8%	19.0%	5.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	43.0%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	4.9%	38.8%	3.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	7.2%	37.5%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	11.9%	—	2.4%	—	4.7%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	11.8%	36.7%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	6.8%	32.0%	1.2%	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	61%	79.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	80.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	79.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	43%	76.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	75.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	75.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261023-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 79°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗