KSTL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

60%

43%

29%

19%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.0¢Risks 40.00u

EPSNO 60.0¢Risks 60.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.00u · EPS −60.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:43+00:00	65.6%	17.8%	66.0%	15.2%	6.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	65.5%	17.8%	66.0%	15.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00	65.5%	19.2%	66.0%	15.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	65.5%	19.2%	66.0%	15.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	65.5%	19.2%	66.0%	15.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	65.5%	19.2%	68.8%	15.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	65.5%	19.2%	68.8%	15.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	65.5%	19.2%	68.8%	15.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	52.8%	19.2%	68.8%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	52.8%	19.2%	68.8%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	52.8%	19.2%	68.8%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	52.8%	19.2%	68.8%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	52.8%	19.2%	68.8%	29.4%	43.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	52.8%	19.2%	60.8%	29.4%	43.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	52.8%	19.2%	60.8%	29.4%	43.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	52.8%	19.2%	60.8%	29.4%	43.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	60.3%	19.2%	60.8%	29.4%	43.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:22+00:00	60.3%	19.2%	60.8%	29.4%	43.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	60.3%	19.2%	60.8%	29.4%	43.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:40+00:00	60.3%	19.2%	60.8%	29.4%	43.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	61%	79.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	80.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	79.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	43%	76.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	75.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	75.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261023-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 79°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗