KSTL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

22%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.5¢Risks 17.50u

ICONNO 82.5¢Risks 82.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.50u · ICON −82.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	2.4%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	0.0%	43.3%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	9.9%	44.4%	0.3%	—	17.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	4.1%	45.6%	7.6%	—	6.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	0.4%	34.4%	0.5%	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	40.0%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	1.6%	38.2%	2.3%	—	4.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	45.1%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	1.6%	39.3%	0.8%	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.7%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	4.1%	37.1%	0.3%	—	2.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	3.2%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	2.1%	36.4%	0.4%	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	4.8%	40.6%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	3.0%	40.4%	1.0%	13.1%	3.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	33.5%	—	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	31%	77.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	76.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	12%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	73.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	74.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	72.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗