KSTL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

22%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.5¢Risks 17.50u

ICONNO 82.5¢Risks 82.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.50u · ICON −82.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:58+00:00	53.5%	13.0%	53.1%	24.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	53.5%	13.0%	52.3%	24.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:37+00:00	53.5%	13.0%	52.3%	24.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	53.5%	13.0%	52.3%	24.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:39+00:00	38.4%	13.0%	52.3%	15.9%	20.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	38.4%	13.0%	52.3%	15.9%	20.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	38.4%	13.0%	52.3%	15.9%	20.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	38.4%	13.0%	52.3%	15.9%	20.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	38.4%	13.0%	52.3%	15.9%	20.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	38.4%	10.3%	34.2%	15.9%	20.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	38.4%	10.3%	34.2%	15.9%	20.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	38.4%	10.3%	34.2%	15.9%	20.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	32.9%	10.3%	34.2%	16.2%	20.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	32.9%	10.4%	34.2%	15.9%	20.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:59+00:00	32.9%	7.2%	34.2%	15.9%	20.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	32.9%	7.2%	34.2%	15.9%	20.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	32.9%	7.2%	34.2%	15.9%	20.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	32.9%	7.2%	34.2%	15.9%	20.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	32.9%	7.2%	34.2%	15.9%	20.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	32.9%	7.2%	34.2%	15.9%	20.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	25.9%	7.2%	34.2%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	25.9%	7.2%	34.2%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	25.9%	7.2%	34.2%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	25.9%	7.2%	34.2%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	25.9%	7.2%	20.8%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	25.9%	7.2%	20.8%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	25.9%	7.2%	20.8%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	25.9%	7.2%	20.8%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	30.9%	7.2%	20.8%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	30.9%	7.2%	20.8%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	30.9%	7.2%	20.8%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:15+00:00	30.9%	7.2%	20.8%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	30.9%	7.2%	26.8%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	30.9%	7.2%	26.8%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	30.9%	7.2%	26.8%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	30.9%	7.2%	26.8%	11.0%	7.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00	24.0%	7.2%	26.8%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	24.0%	7.2%	26.8%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	24.0%	7.2%	26.8%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	24.0%	7.2%	26.8%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:51+00:00	24.0%	3.7%	17.8%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	24.0%	3.7%	17.8%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	24.0%	3.7%	17.8%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	24.0%	3.7%	17.8%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	19.3%	3.7%	17.8%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	19.3%	3.7%	17.8%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	19.3%	2.8%	17.8%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	19.3%	2.8%	17.8%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	19.3%	2.8%	17.1%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	19.3%	2.8%	17.1%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	19.3%	2.8%	17.1%	6.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	19.3%	2.8%	17.1%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	19.3%	2.8%	17.1%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	19.3%	2.8%	17.1%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	19.3%	2.8%	17.1%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	19.3%	2.8%	17.1%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	19.3%	2.8%	18.4%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	19.3%	2.8%	18.4%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	19.3%	2.8%	18.4%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	18.2%	2.8%	18.4%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	18.2%	2.8%	18.4%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	18.2%	2.8%	18.4%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	18.2%	2.8%	18.4%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:04+00:00	18.2%	2.8%	18.4%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	18.2%	2.8%	20.4%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	18.2%	2.8%	20.4%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	18.2%	2.8%	20.4%	7.3%	10.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00	20.4%	2.8%	20.4%	7.8%	10.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	20.4%	2.8%	20.4%	7.8%	10.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	20.4%	2.8%	20.4%	7.8%	10.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	20.4%	2.8%	20.4%	7.8%	10.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:18+00:00	20.4%	2.8%	20.4%	7.8%	10.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00	20.4%	3.7%	24.3%	7.8%	10.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	20.4%	3.7%	24.3%	7.8%	10.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	20.4%	3.7%	24.3%	7.8%	10.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	15.8%	3.7%	24.3%	7.8%	10.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	15.8%	3.7%	24.2%	7.8%	10.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:40+00:00	15.8%	3.7%	24.2%	7.8%	10.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	15.8%	3.7%	24.2%	7.8%	10.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	15.8%	3.7%	24.2%	7.8%	10.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	15.8%	3.7%	15.4%	7.8%	10.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	15.8%	3.7%	15.4%	7.8%	10.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	15.8%	3.7%	15.4%	7.8%	10.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	19.1%	3.7%	15.4%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	19.1%	3.7%	15.4%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	19.1%	3.7%	15.4%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	19.1%	3.7%	15.4%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	19.1%	3.7%	15.4%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	19.1%	3.7%	17.3%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	19.1%	3.7%	17.3%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	19.1%	3.7%	17.3%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	24.9%	3.7%	17.3%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	24.9%	3.7%	17.3%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	24.9%	3.7%	17.3%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:00	24.9%	3.7%	17.3%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	24.9%	3.7%	17.3%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	24.9%	3.7%	29.5%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	24.9%	3.7%	29.5%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	24.9%	3.7%	29.5%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	31.1%	3.7%	29.5%	3.0%	4.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	31.1%	3.7%	29.5%	3.0%	4.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	31.1%	3.7%	29.5%	3.0%	4.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	31.1%	3.7%	29.5%	3.0%	4.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00	31.1%	5.6%	22.0%	10.5%	4.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	31.1%	5.6%	22.0%	10.5%	4.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	31.1%	5.6%	22.0%	10.5%	4.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	31.1%	5.6%	22.0%	10.5%	4.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	31.1%	5.6%	22.0%	10.5%	3.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	31%	77.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	76.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	12%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	73.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	74.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	72.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗