KSTL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

84%

77%

64%

54%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.5¢Risks 71.45u

EPSNO 28.5¢Risks 28.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.55u · EPS −28.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	85.2%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	0.0%	65.8%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	6.9%	74.3%	0.8%	—	25.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	21.0%	87.2%	24.9%	—	31.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	33.0%	80.0%	46.2%	—	33.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	46.0%	77.0%	17.4%	—	35.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	30.0%	75.5%	24.5%	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	34.2%	88.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	66.2%	89.9%	29.9%	50.9%	43.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	85.0%	—	—	30.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	79.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	79.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	77%	78.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	76.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	74.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗