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KSTL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
89%
AIFS
84%
ICON
77%
HRES
64%
EPS
54%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 71.5¢Risks 71.45u
VS
EPSNO 28.5¢Risks 28.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.55u · EPS −28.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 84.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 77.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:0073.5%50.0%84.7%19.8%51.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0073.5%50.0%84.7%19.8%51.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:0073.5%50.0%88.8%19.8%51.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0073.5%50.0%88.8%19.8%51.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0073.5%50.0%88.8%19.8%51.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:0084.2%50.0%88.8%19.8%77.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0084.2%50.0%88.8%19.8%77.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0084.2%50.0%88.8%19.8%77.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:0084.2%50.0%88.8%19.8%77.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:0084.2%53.7%89.2%64.1%77.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0084.2%53.7%89.2%64.1%77.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0084.2%53.7%89.2%64.1%77.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0084.2%53.7%89.2%64.1%77.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:0084.3%53.7%89.2%64.1%77.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 289%79.1°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single84%79.1°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON77%78.1°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES64%76.3°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend54%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble54%74.9°F4.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗