KSTL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

51%

51%

33%

30%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.9¢Risks 54.95u

HRESNO 45.1¢Risks 45.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.05u · HRES −45.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	18.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	68.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	76.4%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	0.0%	52.7%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	3.3%	61.8%	0.3%	—	15.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	12.0%	78.0%	14.8%	—	19.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	20.5%	67.7%	31.6%	—	21.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	30.9%	63.3%	9.0%	—	22.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	17.3%	60.7%	13.4%	—	9.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	20.1%	78.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	49.1%	79.8%	16.7%	33.8%	26.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	72.1%	—	—	16.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	80.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	51%	76.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	76.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	74.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	73.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗